Will the Blue State Exodus Result in National Divorce?

Over the past few years, talk of a national divorce has been prevalent among members of the chattering class. Proponents of this idea argue that America has become so deeply divided that the best solution is for folks on the left and right to call it quits, sign the papers, and move on with their lives. While such a proposition might be difficult to put into practice in an official sense, the exodus from blue states seems to suggest that such a phenomenon might be occurring naturally.

The last decade has seen enormous swaths of Americans moving from blue states like California and New York to red states like Texas and Florida. Interestingly enough, there does not seem to be a substantial number of people deciding to pack up and leave conservative areas for bluer pastures in left-leaning states. Do these developments signify a reshaping of American society?

Leaving California and New York

The US Census Bureau released data in December showing that New York and California have lost a significant number of residents. The Empire State’s population as of July 1, 2020, was 20.1 million. This marks a 100,000 drop from what it was only three months earlier when the COVID-19 outbreak occurred. A year later, its population dropped to less than 19.9 million. In July of 2022, the bureau estimated that its population stood at 19.7 million.

New York’s decline was the steepest of any state in the Union. It was one of 19 states that experienced a loss. The Center Square observed: “Critics have noted New York’s population decline for years. While the state actually saw its population grow by more than 4% from 2010 to 2020, it still lost a seat in Congress in the upcoming term as other states grew at a faster rate.”

California is seeing a similar trend. While there are a greater number of births than deaths in the Golden State, the bureau found that its population still plummeted by more than 300,000 due to people fleeing the region. It marks the third consecutive year of decline.

The population slump notwithstanding, officials still strike an optimistic tone. HD Palmer, deputy director of external affairs at the state’s Department of Finance, told The Center Square that the rate of decline was slowing down, which means that a net growth is in the offing as the recent numbers are “relatively in line with what the historical trend has been.”

Exodus From Blue States?

(Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

On the other hand, red states like Texas and Florida have exploded with refugees from blue states migrating there, together leading the nation when it comes to population growth. The Lone Star State, in particular, became the only other state than California to host more than 30 million people. As of July 1, 2021, its population rose to 30,029,572 after receiving more than 470,000 new residents.

Florida’s population grew to 22,244,823, making it the fastest-growing state. It also had the highest net domestic migration in the country, receiving more than 300,000 people.

Several factors play a role in this population shift. Higher taxes and cost of living are prime contributors, along with increasing crime rates. Major corporations like Apple, Tesla, and others moving their headquarters to states like Texas also play a role.

If this trend persists, which is likely, it will drastically reshape the nation. It would not be surprising in the coming years to see more left-leaning individuals relocate to states that are friendlier to their ideology. But it is worth noting that living in blue states tends to be more financially challenging than in red states, so this migration might not be as substantial as people choosing conservative-leaning areas of the country. Nevertheless, it might just be the closest thing to a national divorce that the country has seen.