Political Horse Race: Wyoming and Alaska Primary Edition

Voters head to the polls in Wyoming and Alaska today in what is shaping up to be a unique pair of primaries regardless of the outcome. Representative Liz Cheney (R-WY), if polls are to be believed, looks doomed to lose her state’s at-large congressional district nomination to a newcomer. And in Alaska, after a 2020 ballot measure, the electorate will decide its contest using four finalists and ranked choice voting. This new system could see Senator Lisa Murkowski (R) make the cut despite her failing popularity and even bring back an old familiar Tea Party face.

End of the Cheney Dynasty?

After becoming the lightning rod for anti-Trump sentiment in the GOP, Liz Cheney is bracing to face the ire of voters in deep-red pro-45 Wyoming. Her main challenger is attorney Harriet Hageman, who is outpolling the incumbent by a clear 20 points. Whether it was Cheney’s vote to impeach former President Donald Trump or her vice chair position on the Jan. 6 Committee, the daughter of former VP Dick Cheney appears to have few friends remaining in her state.

While animosity between the Trumps and the Cheneys has not yet reached Hatfield-and-McCoy status, brutal verbal barbs have set the course for an ultimate political showdown. Trump came out last September in support of Hageman, and since then Cheney has been ramping up the rhetoric in a bid to salvage Wyoming support, even having her father, Dick Cheney, release a tough-talking campaign ad in which he called Trump a “coward.”

In 2020, Wyoming went for Trump over Biden by a massive margin of more than 43%; even Mitt Romney beat Barack Obama by a clear 40 points during the 2012 presidential race. This is a state that votes scarlet, and Cheney’s friendly overtures toward Democrats in Congress and Wyoming appear likely to do her more harm than good.

However, even if the polls are accurate and Cheney loses the primary contest, there is a possibility she may still try to claim the Republican presidential nomination for 2024.

The Alaska Reboot

In 2020, Alaskans voted for a ballot measure that will upset the electoral applecart. Like in California, Louisiana, and Washington, all candidates now run on the same ballot regardless of party affiliation but with one notable difference: Instead of the top two candidates going forward to November’s contest, it will be the top four.

Senator Lisa Murkowski also voted to impeach Trump. And yet the Alaska native – who happens to be the daughter of former US senator and governor of the state, Frank Murkowski – has long been a thorn in the side of her Republican Party colleagues. She faces challenges from more than a dozen contenders, and although her political star may be fading, her solid name recognition and bountiful war chest virtually guarantee her a spot on the ticket in November.

Hoping to unseat the senator is the Trump-backed former Alaska Department of Administration Commissioner Kelly Tshibaka. Both Murkowski and Tshibaka are likely to win a spot in the final four; polling indicates the incumbent may finish behind the challenger. However, as November’s election will be a ranked-choice vote, Murkowski may hang on to her seat even if she does not get much GOP support. It is highly probable that some Alaska Democrat voters will place Murkowski second on their ballots regardless of who the other candidates turn out to be. Either way, this is a competitive race to watch with no foregone conclusion.

A Tea Party Revival?

Another Alaska race generating headlines is the special election to replace near-50-year-serving GOP Representative Don Young, who died in March. Again, this is a wide-open race that will see Democrats and Republicans battle for who serves the remainder of Young’s term. While the winner of that vote will take Young’s place until November, a primary election is also being held to determine who will serve for a full term as the next representative in the same seat. This means that all candidates (winner and losers) will likely advance to the November general election.

Among the contenders for the state’s at-large congressional seat are former Governor Sarah Palin, Republican businessman Nick Begich III, and Democratic former state Representative Mary Peltola. Back in June, when the contest first began, Palin led the pack with 27%, Begich was in second place with 19%, and Peltola taking just 10%. This doesn’t mean, however, that a Palin victory is a certainty. In July polling (notoriously and historically poor in Alaska), Peltola appeared to be the frontrunner at 41%, with Palin coming third at 29%. Begich remained in second place with 30%.

But this is where ranked choice raises some odd possibilities. Due to the combative nature of the campaigning between Palin and Begich, it is by no means clear whom their respective supporters will pick as a second choice candidate. To add even more tension to the race, overseas ballots have until Aug. 31 to make their way home, and the results can’t be officially tallied until they have arrived.

Wyoming and Alaska – The Election Spirit

Although Wyoming and Alaska are not often considered the “big show” in terms of primary contests, the addition of Trump’s influence has made for compelling viewing and highlighted the vital importance of the two states to both parties’ future. If, despite all the odds, Cheney manages to hold on to her seat, she will become a focal point to which the left and the anti-Trump right will muster. Should Murkowski emerge the clear frontrunner in her contest, it could signal a spark of legislative hope for Democrats – the Alaska senator has, after all, voted with Joe Biden 69% of the time.

Whatever happens in today’s races, these states have captivated the nation, despite representing only a combined seven electoral college votes – ultimately proving that all politics is local and every contest matters.

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