Political Horse Race: The Latest Primary Election Results

With seven states holding primary races yesterday, June 28, the nation’s media and political strategists looked on in anticipation of what electoral changes may be wrought in the new world after Roe v. Wade was overturned by the Supreme Court. With Trump endorsees making significant gains, Democrats had hoped that a voter backlash to the abortion ruling might become the new weapon in the fight to save the House majority.

Hochul Coasts in New York

Incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul won her primary race against challengers Jumaane Williams and US Rep. Tom Suozzi. Taking more than triple the votes of her closest rival (67% v. Williams’ 19%), the governor fended off attacks that accused her of being both too progressive and not progressive enough. While the primary was an easy win, rising crime and a mere 20% approval rating could make the November gubernatorial worth watching.

Hochul will be going head-to-head with GOP nominee Rep. Lee Zeldin who beat Andrew Giuliani, and Rob Astorino with 44% of the vote.

Illinois Backs Trump Endorsees

The Republican gubernatorial primary went by a wide margin to Trump-endorsed farmer Darren Bailey, who secured 57% of the votes cast, almost quadrupling his nearest opponent. While this race is a win for Trump, it is also a minor win for Democrat Governors Association, who supported Bailey with ad spending. The left believes that the nominee will be an easier target for Democrat Governor J.B. Pritzker in November. However, this risky strategy failed miserably in Colorado and could even backfire in the actual election.

In the 15th District GOP primary, two incumbents went head to head due to newly drawn boundaries. Trump-backed Rep. Mary Miller won a surprise victory against Rep. Rodney Davis in a contest that many say is a  measure of the 45th president’s enduring sway. Miller got 57% to Davis’ 47%. As Liberty Nation reported in our Primary Primer: “Davis supported the creation of the January 6 congressional inquiry, whereas Miller – although lagging behind in fundraising – has the support of both Trump and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA). Whoever wins this primary is projected to also take the seat in the midterms.”

Colorado Or Bust

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet is considered a good target for the GOP in November and is, therefore, a candidate that pro-Democrat SuperPAC, Democratic Colorado, saw as worthy of support. To bolster his November chances, the SuperPAC spent at least $2.5 million to back state Rep. Ron Hanks against businessman Joe O’Dea in the Republican primary. O’Dea is considered more “moderate” by Dems, and as such, a greater threat to their incumbent candidate.

O’Dea handily won the race finishing ten points ahead of Hanks, perhaps displaying that the backing of candidates by the opposition party is, at best, a hit-and-miss strategy.

Also in Colorado, controversial incumbent Rep. Lauren Boebert secured a decisive victory against state Sen. Don Coram winning 65.5%.

A Nebraska Flood

In the special election to fill the seat vacated by former  GOP Rep. Jeff Fortenberry – who was yesterday sentenced to two years for campaign contribution charges – the race went to Republican candidate Mike Flood. He beat Democrat state Senator Patty Pansing Brooks 53% to 46%. Flood will also be on the ballot for the November election and is favored to win in the reliably red 1^st Congressional District.

Trouble In South Carolina

With Democrat state Rep. Krystle Matthews defeating author and activist Catherine Bruce, 56% to 44%, in the runoff for the Senate seat presently held by Republican Senator Tim Scott, party head honchos may be about to write off the contest altogether. Just two days before the vote, Project Veritas released an audiotape of Matthews in which she is heard to say that she wants to put “sleepers” into the GOP to “wreak havoc for real from the inside out.” She also says in a phone call to an acquaintance – currently in prison –  that she would not be averse to receiving “duffle bags” of “dope money” under false names to help her campaign.

Naturally, the legacy media ignored this story, but come the actual Senate race in November, it is highly unlikely that Scott will not use the recording to his advantage.

Did Roe Make A Difference?

Early voting totals in Illinois were well behind the 2018 turnout. Statewide voter turnout in the 2018 primary was 26.5%, and so far, the 2022 numbers appear to be well behind that figure. The same lack of early voting was confirmed in the very heavy Democrat Chicago. As one Dem strategist speaking to Politico succinctly put it: “Nobody’s turning out. I mean nobody. Nobody is voting.

In New York, a similar issue has emerged. In the 2018 Democrat gubernatorial primary, a total of almost one and a half million voters came out to support either Andrew Cuomo or Cynthia Nixon. This year, that number appears to have dropped by at least 200,000.

Former Clinton strategist James Carville warned, “If this needle doesn’t move by the end of July. it’s probably not going to move.”

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