American Political Thermometer: Trump Surges, and the Left Flounders

The polls and passions of the USA.

In 1972, New Yorker film critic Pauline Kael famously said, “I live in a rather special world. I only know one person who voted for Nixon. Where they are, I don’t know. They’re outside my ken. But sometimes when I’m in a theater I can feel them.” Her now famous admission of living in a liberal bubble could just as accurately describe the political landscape of today, where the divide is so stark that folks wonder whether there can be any form of reconciliation. At least, that’s the view of the Fourth Estate. But what happens when we dig deep into the polls of the day and find out what Americans really think?

Trump Above Water

Despite the 24-hour negative news cycle, President Donald Trump is polling remarkably well. According to Napolitan News Service’s latest, “Trump’s job approval rating is at 54%,” with 44% of voters disapproving. Breaking this down further, “Sixty-percent (60%) of men offer their approval, while women are evenly divided.”

Not all polls are as positive for the president, however.

RealClear Polling provides an aggregate of the most recent surveys from the most prominent pollsters and currently gives Trump a negative 0.6% overall – for a 47.9% approval. Notably, there are several ways to examine this data and filter for higher accuracy.

If one were to include only polls from March that focus on Likely Voters (LV) – the gold standard measurement – Trump’s approval is plus 5%. But there are not so many polls that take the LV route.

Next are polls that include LV and Registered Voters for March (excluding polls that don’t register voter status). This gives Trump a plus 3.5% approval. As you can see, the overall spread varies greatly, but the most likely reality matches Napolitan’s survey.

So, essentially, Trump is doing okay. In fact, his average approval is now higher than at any point during his first term in office. The Democratic Party should be so lucky.

Breaking Records – Just Not Good Ones

CNN reports that the Democrats are suffering a “record low” approval rating, the lowest level of support in more than 30 years. As Liberty Nation News recently reported:

“Just 29% of the overall public have a favorable view of the Democratic Party, the lowest figure since the news outlet began its poll in 1992. ‘Just 63% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents report a favorable view of their own party, a dip from 72% in January,’ the network notes. And this slump in support is registered across multiple pollsters.”

NBC had similar findings, explaining that just 27% of the public have a favorable view of the party – the lowest score since 1990. The outlet noted, “Just 7% say those views are ‘very’ positive.” Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt said, “With these numbers, the Democratic Party is not in need of a rebrand. It needs to be rebooted.”

The question becomes: Why is the party shedding support?

A clue to the answer might be in the attitude it has developed over the last eight years toward the current commander-in-chief. As NBC mentions, in early 2017, “59% of Democrats said they wanted congressional Democrats to make compromises with Trump to gain consensus on legislation, with 33% saying they should stick to their positions even if that means not being able to get things done in Washington.” Fast forward to today, and that number is markedly different:

“Almost two-thirds of Democrats, 65%, say they want congressional Democrats to stick to their positions even if that risks sacrificing bipartisan progress, and just 32% want them to make legislative compromises with Trump.”

It’s almost a complete reversal and highlights why Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is currently losing support from his congressional colleagues over backing the GOP bill to keep DC’s lights on.

Polls and Policy Highlights

Beyond popularity for individuals and parties, there have been a range of policy-based polls in the last week. Here are a couple of the more interesting results:

Support for making English the official language of the US – 73% approve against 21% who don’t (Rasmussen Reports).

Handling of tariffs – 39% approve of Trump’s measures against 61% who don’t (SSRS/CNN)

And finally, it seems the betting markets are gearing up for 2028 already. The current favorites for the next POTUS are:

• Vice President JD Vance – 12/5 or a 29.4% probability.
• Josh Shapiro (D-PA) – 9/1 or a 10% probability.
• Gavin Newsom (D-CA) – 11/1 or an 8.3% probability.
• Ron DeSantis (R-FL) – 13/1 or a 7.1% probability.

We are still years away from the election, so much can – and will – change, but tracking the momentum of the betting markets rarely proves a futile move.